2013 MLB predictions – from A-Rod's HBP count to Washington's World Series pursuit

The Angels and Nationals are the two scariest teams on paper heading into 2013, and I just couldn't convince myself to type in any other teams to reach the World Series. Will Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez stifle the thunderous trio of Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton? We'll find out in October.

The Yankees, well, I believe in them more than most do. Many pundits don't give them a fighting chance because of all the home runs lost in the offseason and their aging core, but many have forgotten about one of the most balanced pitching staffs in the majors. Yes, I'm talking about the Yankees.

BUT, I just can't pick them to win the East after watching the Blue Jays win the offseason by a landslide; R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes and old friend Melky Cabrera are just a few of their prized pickups. Look for the Blue Birds to bolster their bullpen at the break and fly away with the division title...

Anyway, let's get down to it.

Robinson Cano is in a league of his own

ESPN's Tim Kurkjian said last night that Robinson Cano is the best player in baseball... Or that he spoke to an American League scout who spoke to his kid's pet tortoise and that's what it said. Or something like that. Either way, that is wrong.

That argument is between Josh Hamilton and Joey Votto. They have to be considered the first half MVP's in their respective leagues.

But when it comes to second basemen, Cano is second to none. He's in a league of his own, actually.

10 early-season surprising stats [Globe]

I'm not your typical journalist. I love statistics. Databases? I eat those for breakfast.

I compiled 10 of the most surprising statistics in the first month of action, and they are available for your consumption in gallery form at Boston.com. Enjoy. And because I love stats so much, you'll find a few surprising Yankees statistics if you continue reading.

Rangers-Yankees Series Preview: Bring on the heat!

The Yankees begin a three-game set with the Rangers at Yankee Stadium tonight. Below, you’ll find an intimidating list of opposing pitchers’ records. Note: Hopefully now you have less doubts of me predicting the Rangers to represent the AL in the World Series again this year.

Also, keep in mind Josh Hamilton just landed on the DL. The Rangers are weakened, but they are still a powerful squad without their star.

On the Hill:
Friday: Matt Harrison (2-0, 1.29) vs. Ivan Nova (1-0, 6.10)
Saturday: Derek Holland (2-0, 2.25) vs. Freddy Garcia (0-0, 9.00)
Sunday: Alexi Ogando (2-0, 0.00) vs. CC Sabathia (0-1, 1.45)

Hamilton wins AL MVP, no 1st-place votes for Cano

Josh Hamilton received 22 first-place votes and received his first AL MVP Award today, leaving Miguel Cabrera and Robinson Cano in the dust. Jose Bautista actually claimed one of the first-place votes, but received zero for second place and just four for third.

Cano had this to say about Hamilton (via LoHud):

“I would like to congratulate Josh Hamilton on winning the MVP. He is a great player and deserving of the award. I am very proud of my season and expect nothing less of myself. I will continue to work hard and play hard, and along with my teammates, do everything I can to help the Yankees get to and win the World Series.”

Class act.

I thought Cano would’ve received a few first-place votes. If you line up the numbers, Hamilton’s BA is the only thing that really stands out from the pack.

Player	HR	RBI	BA	OPS
Josh Hamilton	32	100	.359	1.044
Miguel Cabrera	38	126	.328	1.042
Robinson Cano	29	109	.319	.914

Cano also had a Gold Glove to add to his résumé.

Robbie Goes Boom! [Nike Video] Cano & Bo

Even though the NL MVP was announced today (Joey Votto almost unanimously, if you didn’t hear), it was a pretty slow news day in Yankeeland. With the AL MVP set to be announced tomorrow, I’m posting this fitting video of Robinson Cano and Bo Jackson in a Nike commercial.

Anyone think Cano has a shot to beat out Josh Hamilton or Miguel Cabrera for MVP? ESPN’s Wallace Matthews thinks so.

Cano honored with Silver Slugger

No surprise here; Robinson Cano won his second AL Silver Slugger Award earlier tonight. Cano had a .914 OPS and his nearest competitor was Howie Kendrick at .721.

He already picked up his first Gold Glove Award Tuesday, but he’ll have to wait until Nov. 23rd to see if he completes the trifecta with an MVP Award.

Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera had better years offensively, but Cano’s defense and his key role for a playoff team may persuade some writers for at least a few first-place votes.

I’ll detail my take on this year’s MVP Award voting as we get closer to the announcement, but I am interested in your response to this question:

Should the success of the candidate’s team affect the MVP vote?

Lee lights out in Game 3, Rangers go up 2-1

Cliff Lee didn’t live up to all the hype for his ALCS Game 3 start against the Yankees. He actually exceeded the hype: eight shutout innings, two hits, one walk and 13 Ks. And the Rangers won easily, 8-0, to take a 2-1 lead in the ALCS.

Best of All: The Yankees didn’t get embarrassed in the postseason as much as the Reds did when Roy Halladay no-hit them in the ALDS. I consider the Yankees lucky to come away with two hits against Lee tonight. He had unhittable stuff.

Andy Pettitte did his best to compete with Lee, lasting seven innings and striking out five. His only blemish was a two-run homer to Josh Hamilton in the first inning.

P.S.: Yankees fans might be seeing Lee in pinstripes next year if he signs as a free agent — but I’m not giving up on this year quite yet.

Worst of All: I think the score says it all.

Coming Up: Game 4 is Tuesday night. Same time, same place. The only difference is that I’ll be in attendance.

ALCS Notes: Hamilton, Pettitte, A-Rod, Tex

I’ve already posted my ALCS preview, but I want to highlight four players in more depth.

The Baseball Beat blog has a nice series preview post of its own, and I especially like who the writer chose as his players to watch.

Texas Player To Watch: OF Josh Hamilton- Hamilton is this team’s MVP and greatly struggles in the ALDS. You have to wonder how much his ribs are bothering him. If the Rangers hope to win, Hamilton needs to produce.

New York Player To Watch: SP Andy Pettitte- Pettitte needs to outduel Lee in a pivotal game 3 of this series and might have to do it again in game 7 with the season on the line.

I couldn’t agree more with both picks. Hamilton is probably the favorite for AL MVP, but it’ll look pretty bad if he winds up winning it and has an awful postseason. So far, he has. He needs to turn it around in the ALCS if the Rangers want to play in their first ever World Series.

As for Pettitte, I don’t think it’s a coincidence he was pushed back in the rotation to face Cliff Lee. The Yankees understand how important Pettitte was to them last postseason (he won all three series clinching games), and if he can prove he’s still a big game pitcher the Yankees will have no trouble getting past the Rangers.

The Ex-Rangers Sub-Plot:
Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira manned the corners of the Rangers infield back in 2003. This year, they’re the top two Yankees sluggers and are looking to bury their old team. It will be interesting to see the Texas crowd’s reaction if either one of them goes yard.

Here are a couple of strange off-the-field issues surrounding both players:

• Rangers owner Tom Hicks has gone on record saying the A-Rod contract was “one of the dumb things” he’s done as owner.
• Ron Washington and Teixeira don’t get along well, as reported by the NY Daily News.

Yankees-Rangers ALCS preview

The Yankees are eight wins away from repeating as champions. After dispatching the Twins in three easy games, the Yankees will face the Texas Rangers.

The Rangers almost fell apart against the Rays in the ALDS, but a heroic performance by Cliff Lee in Game 5 earned them the franchise’s first ever postseason series victory. Now they’ll face a team that’s eliminated them three times in the postseason.

Head to Head:
The Yankees and Rangers split eight regular season matchups evenly, but as I detail in this post, I’m taking the last series when the Rangers swept the Yankees with a green of salt.

Pitching Matchups:

• Broadcast schedule for Games 1-4

Game 1: CC Sabathia vs. C.J. Wilson 
This matchup is why I think the Yankees have the edge in the series. Because the Rangers used Lee in Game 5 of the ALDS, he was pushed back to Game 3 of the ALCS. Does Wilson have a chance against Sabathia? I don’t think so. And it looks like they’d meet again in Game 5 if necessary.

Game 2: Phil Hughes vs. Colby Lewis 
The way Hughes pitched in Game 3 of the ALDS gives me great confidence in him this series. Lewis did a nice job of shutting down the Rays in Game 3, but couldn’t go deep enough to clinch the series. I support Joe Girardi’s decision to throw Hughes in Game 2 at Texas because he proved this year he’s a road warrior. Plus, you might recall Hughes’ second start of his career was a memorable night in Texas.

Game 3: Cliff Lee vs. Andy Pettitte
This is the defining game of the series. Can the Yankees beat Cliff Lee, the starter who’s been as close to lights out as you can get in the postseason? Pettitte seems to be at full strength and is known for pitching in big postseason games. It’s worth noting he is the all-time postseason leader in wins. In addition, he’ll have the fans of Yankee Stadium behind him. Lee gets the slight edge, but it should be a great game to watch.

Game 4: Tommy Hunter vs. A.J. Burnett
I’ll be at this game, and I think this is when the fireworks could break out this series. When I think think of this matchup, all I see is Burnett’s straight fastball and Josh Hamilton’s pretty home run derby swing at Yankee Stadium. That’s scary. Hunter made one start against the Yankees this season, striking out eight over five innings and allowing nine base runners. I predict a total of 20 runs scored in this game.

Roster Notes:
The Yankees are using the same roster as they did in the ALDS, but they did mix up the rotation. Here’s a nice post from LoHud on Girardi’s thought process.

Yankees Have the Edge: 
To reiterate from my previous post, “I’d say the key is the starting pitching, and the fact that Lee is starting Game 3 — not Game 1.”

Prediction:
Yankees in five. W, W, L, W, W. CC Sabathia wins ALCS MVP once again. Hey, I nailed my ALDS prediction and my National League champion pick is still around.

Cano more likely to win big award than CC

This post is in regards to my current poll on the left sidebar. Normally I’d wait until Monday for the new poll to discuss, but I noticed Robinson Cano has only received ONE vote for MVP.

I’m telling you now I sincerely believe Cano has a better chance at winning the MVP than CC Sabathia has at winning the Cy Young.

The Case for Cano:
Cano isn’t leading any major statistical categories, but he has a few things going for him that I factor into my MVP vote.

First, he’s the best player on one of the best teams in baseball. The Yankees are loaded, yes, but Cano plays a huge role into their success. For a while, he was the team’s only .300 hitter. Cano’s WAR (wins above replacement) beats Miguel Cabrera’s 6.5-6.1.

Second, he has the second best well-rounded hitting line (triple crown numbers) in the league. Only Cabrera tops him, but his team is 14 games out of the division lead right now.

Finally, Cano’s impact on defense is greater than Cabrera’s. For the record, I’ve ruled out Josh Hamilton because he’s been injured down the stretch. That’s a killer when it comes to MVP voting, I think.

The Case against CC:
Sabathia is really the real reason why Cano has a better chance to win a big award. I don’t think CC stands a chance against Felix Hernandez. This article from USA Today is why I’m writing this whole post right now, and this is when I started to realize this year’s Cy belongs to King Felix.

Bottom line: CC’s 20 wins don’t compare to Hernandez’s league-lead in strikeouts and ERA.

In Summary:
I don’t think either Yankee leaders have a great chance at winning a big award, but Cano has a better chance because of Hernandez’s dominant year.

Yankees-Rangers series preview

Tonight marks the start of a tough stretch of games the rest of the season for the Yankees. This weekend they play three in Texas, the AL West leader by 7.5 games, and it doesn’t get much easier after that.

If the season ended today, the Yankees would play the Rangers in the Division Series. This weekend’s series won’t be a very helpful precursor, however, because of the pitching matchups and the absence of MVP candidate Josh Hamilton.

Head to Head:
The Yankees swept the Rangers back in April and split a two-game series in August. This series will be their final matchup of the season, but could meet again in the postseason.

Pitching Matchups:

Date:	Yankees starters	Rangers starters
Fri., 8:05 p.m.	Javier Vazquez (10-9, 5.01)	C.J. Wilson (14-6, 3.10)
Sat., 8:05 p.m.	A.J. Burnett (10-13, 5.15)	T. Hunter (12-3, 3.99)
Sun., 3:05 p.m.	Dustin Moseley (4-2, 4.83)	Cliff Lee (2-5, 4.69)

Lineup Notes: No surprises!

Prediction:
The Yankees don’t have their best pitchers lined up for this series and I think that will really hurt them. I bet they’ll win a game for Burnett tomorrow, but it’ll be tough to find offense against Wilson and Lee.

Is A-Rod’s DL stint a blessing in disguise?

How could the most expensive ballplayer make his team better by going on the DL? Alex Rodriguez was placed on the 15-day DL Saturday, but the Yankees haven’t lost once in 12 games with their star third baseman out of the lineup.

First, let’s take a closer look at those 12 games. There’s no way the Yankees could actually be a better team without a perennial All-Star, right?

Date	Opponent	Opponent Games Back	Opponent Starter ERA	Yankees Starter ERA	RS	RA
5/2	White Sox	6	5.30	1.44	12	3
5/28	Indians	10	3.69	2.70	8	2
6/11	Astros	10	3.18	2.46	4	3
6/12	Astros	11	5.60	5.43	9	3
6/13	Astros	11	6.32	3.11	9	5
6/15	Phillies	3.5	2.36	4.00	8	3
8/7	Red Sox	6	4.60	3.14	5	2
8/17	Tigers	11	3.77	3.12	6	2
8/18	Tigers	12	5.37	4.76	9	5
8/19	Tigers	12	5.76	3.90	11	5
8/21	Mariners	19.5	3.43	5.05	9	5
8/22	Mariners	20.5	4.57	3.02	10	0

The ERA stats may have something to do with it, but I think the biggest factor contributing to this odd streak of wins is the opponent. If you take the average of games behind the opposing team is in its division, it comes out to 11.04.

This is evidence that the Yankees aren’t necessarily a better team without A-Rod, but the teams they’ve faced haven’t been very challenging.

Of course, if you look at the Yankees upcoming schedule there aren’t many challenging teams. If he returns as soon as he’s eligible, he’ll miss five vs. Toronto, four vs. Oakland, three vs. the Chicago and he’s already missed two against the Mariners. The White Sox are the only team within five games of first place.

The Benefits of A-Rod’s Absence
Now we know the Yankees haven’t, and won’t be, facing a lot of competitive teams without A-Rod, let’s look at the bright side of his DL stint.

Super Nova Experiment: The only thing set in stone for Ivan Nova, the Yankees’ best starter in Triple-A this year, is he’ll make tonight’s start against the Blue Jays. After that, the plan for Nova is uncertain. Nova made one relief appearance for the Yanks earlier this year and I really liked what I saw. I love when the Yankees bring up new pitchers, and I’ll definitely be rooting for Nova tonight.

Cano’s MVP Chase: Robinson Cano isn’t the frontrunner for the MVP anymore with Miguel Cabrera and Josh Hamilton having the years they’re having. No matter what, Cano’s chances at the MVP Award are hurt because he plays for a team filled with All-Stars. Now that A-Rod is gone for a couple weeks, Cano will have a chance to prove he can put a team on his back. Yesterday’s game was a statement.

Grading Eduardo: Eduardo Nunez has started both games at third base since A-Rod went on the shelf, and he’s been solid in both. Nunez will likely stay on the 25-man roster through Aug. 31, meaning he’ll be eligible for the playoffs. If he proves his bat is worth having off the bench, he could possibly find himself a spot on the playoff roster. If not, at least the Yankees will have a better idea of what they’re getting from Nunez.

Yankees-Rangers series preview

The Yankees are back on the road this week, starting with a short series in Texas and ending with a long series in Kansas City.

The Rangers aren’t playing their best baseball, but are still a force to be reckoned with. Led by the MLB batting leader, Josh Hamilton, the Rangers hold the third best record in the league and have a stranglehold on the AL West.

Despite a recent slide against quality teams, the Yankees are still atop every set of power rankings you’ll find and lead the AL East by 1.5 games with the best record in baseball.

Head to Head:
Back in April, the Yankees swept the Rangers at Yankee Stadium. That was the only time these teams have met this year, and after these two games, the Yankees visit Texas again next month.

Pitching Matchups:

Date:	Yankees starters	Rangers starters
Tues., 8:05 p.m.	A.J. Burnett (9-9, 4.93)	C.J. Wilson (10-5, 3.30)
Wed., 8:05 p.m.	Javier Vazquez (9-8, 4.63)	Cliff Lee (2-2, 2.63)

Lineup Note: The Yankees most likely will play without Mark Teixeira this series, as he’s home with his pregnant wife whose expecting a child.

Players to Watch:
Yankees: Derek Jeter. He’s the Yankees’ hottest hitter by far in August with a .344/.417/.438 line. He’s also hit quite a few of his homers against Texas over the years.

Rangers: David Murphy. He’s off to a good start in August and most of his power numbers come off righties. He’ll face two in his next two games.

Prediction:
The Yankees aren’t just facing two lefties; they’re facing two great lefties. Wilson is having a breakout year as a starter and Lee is, well, regular old Lee. I’ll be happy with another split.