2013 MLB predictions – from A-Rod's HBP count to Washington's World Series pursuit

The Angels and Nationals are the two scariest teams on paper heading into 2013, and I just couldn't convince myself to type in any other teams to reach the World Series. Will Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez stifle the thunderous trio of Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton? We'll find out in October.

The Yankees, well, I believe in them more than most do. Many pundits don't give them a fighting chance because of all the home runs lost in the offseason and their aging core, but many have forgotten about one of the most balanced pitching staffs in the majors. Yes, I'm talking about the Yankees.

BUT, I just can't pick them to win the East after watching the Blue Jays win the offseason by a landslide; R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes and old friend Melky Cabrera are just a few of their prized pickups. Look for the Blue Birds to bolster their bullpen at the break and fly away with the division title...

Anyway, let's get down to it.

New poll: Which injured Yankee is needed back most: Brett Gardner, Andy Pettitte or Alex Rodriguez?

In last week's poll we focused on the trade deadline. There were some decent options out there, like a quality third baseman and some good pitchers. But the Yankees settled for corner infielder Casey McGehee, who hasn't done much of anything since joining the team. Obviously, the most noteworthy deadline acquisition was Ichiro, who got his first taste of reality last night against Justin Verlander (he struck out his first three times in pinstripes).

The underlying theme here is the Yankees needed replacements for the injured. There are three players the Yankees are hoping will return sometime in September: Brett Gardner, Andy Pettitte and Alex Rodriguez. A couple of these guys are old and a couple have had setbacks. There's no guarantee any of these three will return. So if you had to pick one, who would it be? I'll breakdown each player below.

10 early-season surprising stats [Globe]

I'm not your typical journalist. I love statistics. Databases? I eat those for breakfast.

I compiled 10 of the most surprising statistics in the first month of action, and they are available for your consumption in gallery form at Boston.com. Enjoy. And because I love stats so much, you'll find a few surprising Yankees statistics if you continue reading.

Stat: Brett Gardner and Albert Pujols had equal value in 2011

I'm not sure if Brett Gardner and Albert Pujols have ever been mentioned in the same breath by anyone until now. And I've determined that they still shouldn't unless one hits the ball to the other (very possible in 2012).

According to WAR (wins above replacement), the leading advanced metric to determine a player's value, Gardner and Pujols were worth the same last season.

Long pause

You heard me (to all the non-believers, click here). The 5-foot-10, 185-pound nine-hitter and the man known as The Machine both had a 5.1 WAR last season. So, how on earth is this possible?  

Albert Pujols will never be a Yankee, and that’s a good thing

Mark Teixeira told Joel Sherman he’s “not going anywhere” and I can assure you no team — even the Yankees — will spend $300 million on a DH. Teixeira is signed through 2016, so he’s the Yankees’ first baseman for the long haul.

Albert Pujols will be a free agent after this season because he refuses to negotiate midseason and he couldn’t reach an agreement with the Cardinals before he arrived at camp this week.

Yahoo!: Rivera wants two years & $36M, but Yankees only want him for one year

Lovely. Another contract disagreement between the Yankees and a Core Four member.

Via Yahoo! MLB Columnist Jeff Passan:

Source: #Yankees want to offer Mariano Rivera only a one-year deal. Rivera seeking two-year deal for around $18 million per season.

Let’s review the Yankees’ major suspected offers this offseason shall we?

• A) 11/17: Yankees want Derek Jeter for thee years & $63M, but Jeter wants at least four years.
• B) 11/21: Yankees plan to offer Cliff Lee a five-year, $115-120M contract.
• C) Tonight, the Yankees want Rivera for one year, but he wants two years, $36M.

If all three get what they want, that’s north of $60 million just to pay those three for next year. Add on Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira, and you’re looking at close to $140 million for six players. That’s more than most teams’ total salaries.

I agree with the Yankees’ side in samples ‘A’ and ‘C’ but not ‘B.’ I said last night the Yankees should pay Rivera what he asks for, but I wasn’t expecting a 41-year-old closer (due in seven days) to ask for more than Albert Pujols makes.

I might give Mo $18M for one year, but definitely not for two.

Either way, I’m disgusted with both Core Four members asking for ridiculous contracts, and I’m even more ticked off at the Yankees for planning to offer Lee the lucrative deal he wants.

A-Rod Featured Yankee Card of the Week

Alex Rodriguez is bound for a big year in 2010. His consistency over a 12-year span is unmatched, and he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down.

Despite missing the first month of the season last year, A-Rod still managed to compile his 12th consecutive season with 30 or more homers and 100 RBI.

Fantasy baseball drafters will have to make the choice of how high to draft him. Yahoo! ranks him third, behind Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez. I’d say Rodriguez has the edge over Ramirez statistically, but Ramirez may have more value as a second pick since he’s a shortstop. There are a lot more options at third base than there are at short.

Consider that my first fantasy tip of the year. Expect them to come on a weekly basis.

Two things that might excite you

I linked to this Bob Klapisch article before, but I didn’t see this nifty photo of Albert Pujols in pinstripes.

Looks good to me.

Speaking of first basemen… Jesus Montero, the Yankees’ highly-touted catching prospect, worked out at first in a workout on Thursday.

"I want to be a catcher in the big leagues, but this may help me get to the big leagues faster," he said.

Good to hear. If Montero is as big a prospect as everyone is saying, it’s nice to hear a willing-to-do-anything attitude like that.

From the sounds of those who have seen this kid play behind the plate, he sounds like he’s a quick learner. His strong arm threw out 32 percent of base stealers in Trenton after he started out the year in Tampa throwing out just 13 percent of runners.

He is projected to start the year in Scranton, but an injury to Jorge Posada or Francisco Cervelli or maybe a really impressive spring could give him a bid to the bigs.

115-year-old Babe Ruth vs. Albert Pujols

Today is Babe Ruth’s 115th birthday. All hail:

• The Sultan of Swat
• The Wali of Wallop
• The Rajah of Rap
• The Caliph of Clout
• The Wazir of Wham
• The Colossus of Clout
• Maharajah of Mash
• The King of Clout
• The Colossus of Crash
• The King of Swing
• The Terrible Titan
• The Kid of Crash
• The Jovial Giant
• The Great Bambino 

Credit WikiAnswers for all the nicknames. I only knew the ones in bold.

Anyway, I’m a stats guy — not a sabermetrician — but enough to spend time compiling a lot of numbers. I thought it would be interesting to stack up Albert Pujols’s year-by-year stats to Ruth’s. There are only a handful of players who can hit for average and power. These two might just be the best ever at the rare combination.

I compared home runs, runs batted in, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage between Ruth and Pujols. I started the stats with Ruth in 1920 because it was his first year as a Yankee and a full-time position player.

I also decided to keep in 1925 for Ruth even though he missed significant time. I figured he already has the edge over Pujols anyway. As shown by the numbers, it still doesn’t put Pujols, who’s hardly missed any time, ahead of Ruth.

If you’re just interested in the totals, just from 1920-28 and 2001-09, here’s a quick data table:

Babe Ruth	Stat	Albert Pujols
421	HR	366
1181	RBI	1112
.356	BA	.334
.494	OBP	.427
.745	SLG	.628

And here are the graphs… (click to enlarge)