2022 MLB Predictions: Judge, Donaldson, Gallo & Volpe

I'm just glad for the opportunity to make predictions on a full 162-game season this year.

AL East
1. Blue Jays
2. Yankees
3. Rays

4. Red Sox

5. Orioles

Results from my 2021 predictions

Outside of the NL Central standings, it was yet another rough go for my predictions. While my statistical predictions almost always exceed the players' performances, Gerrit Cole managed to surpass my expectations for his strikeout total, falling just five K's short of Ron Guidry's now 43-year-old record.

AL East
1. Yankees INCORRECT (Rays)
2. Blue Jays* INCORRECT (Red Sox)
3. Rays INCORRECT (Yankees)

4. Red Sox INCORRECT (Blue Jays)

5. Orioles CORRECT

Do or Die: Yankees Look to Ride Cole Train to ALCS

In what may have been his last start dawning pinstripes, Masahiro Tanaka allowed the Rays to back the Yankees against a wall. But despite emptying the tanks of their elite relievers, the Yankees managed to force a Game 5 with one goal in mind: give the ball to Gerrit Cole.

The richest pitcher in baseball history will get his shot Friday night, pitching on three days rest for the first time in his career against what will likely be a tag-team of the Rays' top tier pitchers, starting with Tyler Glasnow. In other words, the Yankees will try to repeat their Game 1 performance and the Rays will try to follow the script from Game 2. 

It doesn't get much better than this. It's the biggest rivalry in the American League these days (sorry, Boston fans, but you lost that honor when you traded Mookie Betts). It's do or die. It's the most expensive lineup in baseball vs. a "stable of guys who throw 98 miles per hour." And with that, let's preview what we're going to see tonight.

Results from my 2018 MLB predictions

Of course, the one year I pick the Yankees to win it all the Red Sox win it instead.

Weakest silver lining ever: I'm pretty sure this is my first year getting both of the Rookie of the Year picks right.

AL East 
1. Red Sox CORRECT
2. Yankees* CORRECT
3. Orioles INCORRECT (Rays)

4. Blue Jays CORRECT

5. Rays INCORRECT (Orioles)

2018 MLB predictions: Judge, Stanton & Sanchez

For starters, this is my 10th annual MLB predictions post. I feel old.

I haven't picked the Yankees to win it all since my first two years on the job, and the first time I was right on the money. This year, the Yankees are actually a pretty safe bet to win it all, so I'll take my chances.

Better late than never! Let's get right down to it:

AL East 
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees*
3. Orioles

4. Blue Jays

5. Rays

AL Central 
1. Indians
2. Twins
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Royals

AL West 
1. Astros
2. Angels*
3. Mariners

4. Rangers
5. Athletics 

NL East 
1. Nationals
2. Phillies
3. Mets
4. Braves
5. Marlins

NL Central 
1. Cubs
2. Brewers*
3. Cardinals
4. Pirates
5. Reds

NL West 
1. Dodgers
2. Rockies*
3. Diamondbacks
4. Padres

5. Giants

*Wild Card Winner 

Playoffs
AL Champion: Yankees
NL Champion: Nationals
World Series Champion: Yankees, 6 games

Awards
AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
AL Cy: Chris Sale
NL Cy: Max Scherzer
AL RoY: Shohei Otani
NL RoY: Ronald Acuña
AL Manager: Aaron Boone
NL Manager: Craig Counsell

Yankee Stats 
Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton & Gary Sanchez home runs: 126 

Giancarlo Stanton & Aaron Judge walks: 233
Giancarlo Stanton & Aaron Judge strikeouts: 322
Greg Bird games played: 98 
Gleyber Torres games played:: 43
Aaron Hicks runs: 86 – He'll be hitting leadoff before you know it

Luis Severino wins: 21

CC Sabathia ERA: 4.25

Aroldis Chapman saves: 29

Previous Predictions

2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017

Results

2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017

Results from my 2017 MLB predictions

Despite all of my reasons the Yankees could fail in 2018, they have the third shortest odds to win the World Series, right behind the Astros and the Dodgers.

Now that the season has begun, let's take a look at how I did on last year's predictions. I hit .260 (13/50).

My most impressive prediction last year was picking the Astros to win it all.

My least impressive? Saying Aaron Judge’s “too many strikeouts will lead to a demotion.” Ha!

AL East 
1. Red Sox CORRECT
2. Blue Jays* INCORRECT (Yankees)
3. Yankees* INCORRECT (Rays)

4. Orioles INCORRECT (Blue Jays)

5. Rays INCORRECT (Orioles)

Q&A with Bryan Hoch, author of new Yankees book 'The Baby Bombers'

Longtime Yankees beat reporter for MLB.com Bryan Hoch just released his first book, and it's definitely worth the read if you want to hear how the Yankees cultivated the next potential "Core Four."

Hoch features extensive detail on how the Yankees scouted and developed Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino and Greg Bird. Brian Cashman's key trades and near-trades over the past few seasons are also detailed like never before.

I breezed through my advance copy in about a week. Go pick up this book now.

If you're still looking for a reason to buy it, I'll let him tell you why you should, as Hoch was nice enough to hop on the phone with me for a 15-minute interview about the book and the current state of the Yankees.

I’ve just finished reading it, but why should other fans pick up a copy of your book?

I hope it captures the excitement that fans have around this team right now. The concept beginning the book was how the Derek Jeter Yankees became the Aaron Judge Yankees. You know from watching the team last year that people really fell in love with these guys – the Judges, Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino, Greg Bird – there’s so much excitement around the Bronx. For the first time in a very long time you can really see a future where the Yankees are gonna be good for a sustainable period of time and compete for championships year in and year out. I think watching these guys come up through the farm system, become stars at the big league level, get to experience New York for the first time. It’s not just that they’re young, it’s that they’re good. I think the sky really is the limit for what these guys can accomplish going forward. 

7 reasons why the Yanks could fail in 2018

Don’t get me wrong, I have a lot of hope for the Yankees in 2018. But it won’t be easy. The AL East is still the deepest division in baseball, and while the Yankees made the biggest move of the offseason to acquire Giancarlo Stanton, now they have a target on their backs. 

Plus, a lot of things could very easily go wrong with this team. Here are seven of the biggest concerns I have with this squad.

1. We can’t expect so many career years again

Let’s get real for a second: it all came together for the Yankees in 2017. Luis Severino, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Starlin Castro, Ronald Torreyes and Chad Green all had monster seasons. That’s a lot to live up to this year, as all are back with the exception of Castro. Realistically, maybe one of this bunch will be able to improve on last season, while the rest will likely not be able to match their magical 2017 campaign.

Yankees Games to Watch in 2018

It’s Feb. 19. The Yankees’ first game of 2018 is just a few days away, and there’s something different buzzing around camp than there has in recent years.

Last year they were the underdogs, but then they overachieved and fell one game short of the World Series. As CC Sabathia said over the offseason, the Yankees have reclaimed their Evil Empire status with the acquisition of reigning MVP Giancarlo Stanton. 

They’re back to being hated.

With that in mind, and given the excitement for the season ahead, I wanted to take a closer look at some of the most-anticipated matchups slated on their schedule.

Yankees Postseason Gear: Pinstripe Judge Robe, Sir Didi Shirt & More

After Joe Girardi's Game 2 gaffe I thought the Yankees were done. But then when I was at the Stadium for Game 4, I saw a team playing with a lot of heart. And then Todd Frazier confirmed that after the Yankees polished off the Indians in Game 5 last night when he said, "This one is for Joe."

What a time to be a fan. As the ALCS is set to begin Friday night, it's time to gear up. Literally. Check out this Pinstripe Judge Robe.

I'm a big fan, despite his record-setting 16 strikeout performance in the ALDS.

And who doesn't love "Sir Didi" Gregorius? I love this spin on a classic T.

Disclosure: I will receive a 10% commission on any purchase made on MLBShop.com. Happy shopping! 

2017 MLB predictions: Sanchez, Bird & Judge

Without a doubt, these 2017 Yankees are the most exciting I've ever covered on this blog, which dates back to 2009. What a good year that was to start a Yankees blog, am I right?

Anyhow, with names like Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird and Aaron Judge slotted in the Opening Day starting lineup, how can you not be pumped? Are these three the next Jorge Posada, Tino Martinez and Paul O'Neill? Only time will tell. 

And let's not forget about Gleyber Torres, the blue-chip prospect the Yankees received in last year's Aroldis Chapman trade with the Cubs. With Didi Gregorius sidelined to start the season (shoulder), it's possible Torres makes a Sanchezesque rise to the Show later this year.

As for the team's fate, unfortunately, the AL East remains one of the most competitive divisions in all of baseball. The Red Sox are the heavy favorites despite losing David Ortiz to retirement, and the Orioles and Blue Jays are still loaded too. 

The Yankees' offense looks to be much improved with a full season of Sanchez and Bird at the top of the order, plus a seemingly healthy Matt Holliday inserted at DH. Their bullpen also looks almost as good as last year, as Chapman is back in pinstripes after helping the Cubs break their curse. However, the Yankees' success will come down to starting pitching, as it usually does. 

After Masahiro Tanaka, there are a lot of question marks. Can CC Sabathia keep it together for another year? Will Michael Pineda's numbers match his electrifying stuff, for once? And which Luis Severino will we see: the 2015 dominant young stud or the 2016 bust? 

Results from my 2016 MLB predictions

Kris Bryant made me look good for the second year in a row, taking home the NL MVP a year after being named Rookie of the Year. 

Other than that, and a fluke NL East prediction, I didn't do so hot, as usual. 

Gary Sanchez honored at Thurman Munson Awards dinner

We all know the tragic ending to Thurman Munson's life in 1979. But to truly understand the magnitude of the impact he left on the Yankees community, baseball, and all New York sports teams, you've got to find yourself a seat at the annual charity dinner created in his honor.

And that's where I found myself last night: at the 37th Thurman Munson Awards dinner along with fellow New York sports bloggers and beat reporters, all organized by Thurman's widow, Diana. The awards are presented for success and inspiration on the fields of play and community spirit off the field.

This year's recipients included Victor Cruz, Wilmer Flores, and Gary Sanchez. Sanchez made a bit of news in the pre-dinner press conference by officially declaring he would not participate in the World Baseball Classic.

Gary Sanchez answers questions from a mob of media. 

"I actually said yes initially," Sanchez said through his interpreter. "This last week, I spoke to my family, and the more I thought about it the more I felt I had to be in spring training for the full spring training to get ready for the season."

Sanchez, who showed up to the dinner with a beard that Mr. Steinbrenner would not be so fond of, shied away from the idea of being the new face of the franchise. Still, it was hard not to draw comparisons of him to Munson, so I asked a couple of Munson's teammates what they thought about last year's rookie sensation.

Bucky Dent said, "Gary's got a bright future. Thurman was our captain, our leader, just a great catcher, great player. Gary has that ability to go on and do the same thing." And Graig Nettles added, "Well, I don't know about being a captain, but if he keeps doing what he's doing he's gonna have a long career."

From left to right: Roy White, Bucky Dent, Graig Nettles, Diana Munson, Victor Cruz, Gary Sanchez, and Wilmer Flores.

Dent and Nettles were honored at the dinner and were introduced by Diana and Michael Kay, respectively.

Over the years this annual dinner has raised nearly $15 million for the AHRC New York City Foundation, which aids children and adults who have intellectual and development disabilities.

All in all, it was a very classy evening filled with one moving speech after another. Read on for more nuggets from the honorees and about Thurman's legacy.

2016 MLB predictions: A-Rod's home run count, Severino victories, Chapman saves

Better late than never!

AL East 
1. Blue Jays
2. Yankees*
3. Red Sox 

4. Orioles

5. Rays

AL Central 
1. Royals
2. Indians
3. White Sox
4. Tigers
5. Twins

AL West 
1. Astros
2. Angels*
3. Rangers

4. Athletics
5. Mariners 

NL East 
1. Nationals
2. Mets*
3. Marlins
4. Phillies
5. Braves

NL Central 
1. Pirates
2. Cardinals*
3. Cubs*
4. Brewers
5. Reds

NL West 
1. Giants
2. Dodgers
3. Diamondbacks
4. Padres

5. Rockies

*Wild Card Winner 

Playoffs
AL Champion: Astros
NL Champion: Nationals
World Series Champion: Nationals, 6 games

Awards
AL MVP: Carlos Correa
NL MVP: Kris Bryant
AL Cy: Felix Hernandez
NL Cy: Jacob deGrom
AL RoY: Byron Buxton
NL RoY: Corey Seager
AL Manager: A.J. Hinch
NL Manager: Clint Hurdle

Yankee Stats 
Alex Rodriguez home runs: 26 – so he'll fall one shy of Ruth's record!

Brett Gardner SBs: 30

Starlin Castro AVG: .299

Luis Severino wins: 18

Michael Pineda ERA: 4.22

Dellin Betances holds: 35

Andrew Miller saves: 10

Aroldis Chapman saves: 31

Previous Predictions

2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015

Results

2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015

Results from my 2015 MLB predictions

For just the third time in seven years of preseason predictions, I predicted where the Yankees would fall in the standings. 

And on the flip side, of the 16 awards & stats predictions, I got just one correct. And it was the one everyone got: NL RoY – Kris Bryant.

Just for the record, you can find the complete results below and see just how far off I was on my Luis Severino prediction.

What I would've done with A-Rod's 3,000th hit ball

Quite simply, I would have done what Christian Lopez did with Derek Jeter's 3,000th hit: given the ball back to Alex Rodriguez and accepted any gifts he or the Yankees offered. I'm pretty sure most people would do the same.

But, in case you've missed what's actually transpired, this is not what's happened at all. Instead, a ballhawk named Zack Hample managed to catch the ball and has milked this situation for as much press as possible. Here's one of his latest tweets:

Hey, @AROD, I'm the guy who snagged your 3,000th hit. Any chance for a follow back? It would mean a lot to me.

— Zack Hample (@zack_hample) June 23, 2015

What is he trying to do here? Become friends with A-Rod? In the article linked above, he claimed he "didn’t think the eyes of the world would be on me" after tweeting this, despite being written about in the tabloids day after day.

Still, the ball remains in Hample's possession. Here's his latest update on the talks with the Yankees: “I just have an open dialogue right now with the Yankees. It’s gonna take a little longer, probably a week at least before anything is finalized, if anything is finalized. … I have been talking a lot with the Yankees and I’m hopeful something could work out with them.”

It sounds to me like he's asked for something far beyond a typical request for a milestone baseball.

With Tanaka back, the Yankees have a chance

Masahiro Tanaka returned from the disabled list yesterday, and he was flat-out filthy. Here's what pitching dominance looks like:
 

Tanaka was held to a hard 80-pitch maximum in his return, but he made the most of them with seven pretty innings in 78 pitches (3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K).

The only knock on Tanaka's return was it was against one of the weaker offenses in baseball. Still, his stuff looked good enough to get most hitters out: he painted corners with a two-seam fastball, embarrassed hitters with his splitter, and surprised hitters with his backdoor slider.

Tanaka isn't the only surprise on the Yankees this season. Mark Teixeira finally looks healthy and his production has been huge. He leads the league in RBIs (41) and is second in homers (16).

The Yankees are one game up in the relatively weak AL East, but if Tanaka and Teixeira can keep this up that one-game margin should expand.

Babe Ruth's insane home run milestones [Infographic]

With Alex Rodriguez sitting on 660 homers, tied with Willie Mays for fourth most all-time, I felt this Babe Ruth infographic by ESPN was worth sharing.

The crazy thing is this infographic only tells half of Ruth's story. Check out his five fairly dominant years of pitching with the Red Sox before joining the Yankees.

Coincidence? Bullpen ERA leaders also lead their divisions

The Yankees didn't even get five innings out of their starter last night but still won. How? It's no secret: their bullpen has been untouchable.

No Mariano? No problem. David Robertson put an end to that discussion quickly, but then left for the White Sox and more money.

This year's dynamic duo is Dellin Betances & Andrew Miller, who've combined for 18.2 scoreless innings in 17 appearances. Betances had a "slow" start but has really looked sharp in his last few outings, and Miller has been as filthy as advertised. Esmil Rogers also deserves a shoutout as the go-to long reliever with a 2.84 ERA in 12.2 innings.

After last night's W, the Yankees sit atop the AL East tied with the Rays at 11-8. It turns out the Yankees aren't the only team benefiting from their bullpen. Sorted by bullpen ERA, the top six ranked teams also lead their division, except for the Royals who are a half game behind the Tigers.

But the Tigers are pretty to explain. First, their offense has been explosive in 2015 – I still can't get over how Miguel Cabrera has a .652 AVG against the Indians this year (15-for-23). The Tigers also lead the majors in innings pitched by starters, so they haven't had to rely on their 26th-ranked bullpen as much to win games.

For a bit of context, six of last year's 10 playoff teams had a bullpen ERA in the top 10, including the World Series champion Giants.

Fifty years ago, bullpens were barely even a thing. 

Yankees Bleacher Creatures Roll Call

Just attending last night's Yankees-Red Sox game would have been satisfying enough for me. But with a last-minute invite, I found myself chanting with the Bleacher Creatures in the first inning before the Yankees scored seven in the first and went on to a 14-4 victory.

Here's the full roll call video, just a few seats away from Bald Vinny & The Creatures.

ELLS-BUR-Y! ELLS-BUR-Y! ELLS-BUR-Y!

Also, The Boss.

Oh by the way, I've attended two Yankees games this year and they've been their only two victories thus far. Anyone have tickets for tonight?