Month-long AL East showdown begins tonight

As the division's top two teams begin a three-game series Friday, the Yankees are clinging to a three-game lead over the Orioles in the AL East. But that's not the whole story. The story is September will be a month of scoreboard watching for the Yankees, Orioles and Rays.

For starters, all 10 of the Yankees' next games are against the Orioles and Rays. After, for their remaining 22 games, 16 are against AL East teams, including three with the Rays and six with the Red Sox.

Overall, 81 percent of the Yankees remaining games are against AL East teams.

It's all the same for the rest of the division's schedule. The Rays and Orioles face off six more times this season, including the season's final three games. Oh by the way, the last three games of the season will also be the most meaningless Red Sox-Yankees games ever played in the rivalry.

So here's what the Yankees need to do to hang on to first place: get healthy and pitch well.

GET HEALTHY:

Alex Rodriguez and Andy Pettitte are the major names needed back for the postseason, but their are others rehabbing, too.

If you haven't noticed, a guy named Pearce has hit in the middle of the Yankees' lineup the past couple of nights. His name is Steve Pearce, actually, and he began the year in New York's farm system before being traded to the Orioles, who cut him. If he is involved at all in the Yankees' postseason roster debate, the Bronx Bombers would likely be in trouble.

Anyway, the reason Pearce is in the lineup as a DH is because Nick Swisher is filling in at first for the injured Mark Teixeira. Teixeira is on the DL, as is starter Ivan Nova, who is likely primed for the postseason team -- most likely as a long reliever.

That decision will probably depend on Pettitte's status, which isn't great. He's still pitching off flat ground, and for those who don't know, a mound adds a lot more stress to a pitcher's delivery. At this rate, it's unlikely he'll be able to return quickly enough for even one tune-up start before the postseason. You hate to say it, but we're all thinking the same thing: They don't test for HGH during the season.

A-Rod, on the other hand, is looking pretty good. Expect him to return to the clean-up spot (sorry, Pearcey) in the next 10 days or so.

Also rehabbing and likely to return this month are relievers Pedro Feliciano (remember him?) and David Aardsma (oh, him).

A closer look at the AL wild card [Globe]

The Yankees are in a bit of a slide, but still have a 4.5-game lead over the Red Sox Rays Orioles in the AL East. It's pretty weird seeing the Orioles, not the Red Sox or Rays, in second place and playoff-bound this late in the year, isn't it?

I'm looking at you, Buck Showalter.

Since I work for the Boston Globe, and because some people around here still think the Sox can turn it around this year, I whipped up this primer on the AL wild card race. There are currently five teams within two games of a wild card spot, and the Red Sox are 5.5 games out.

After looking closely into this race, I am actually one of the few who think the Sox have a shot at making the postseason. Read all about it, and then feel free to state your case. Who are your two AL wild card predictions?

Where the Red Sox collapse ranks [Globe]

Last game of the season is tonight, and the Yankees still don’t know who they are playing in the first round. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are tied in the wild card race with the Rays, who face the Yankees young hurler Dellin Betances tonight.

If the Red Sox miss out on the playoffs, they would fit in with this list of baseball’s biggest collapses feature I did for Boston.com. Enjoy.

Yankees-Rays Series Preview: Meet Brandon Laird

The Rays are probably a bit tired after last night’s 16-inning affair against the Red Sox. The Yankees can catch the Rays sleeping tonight, as the two AL East giants start a four-game series at the Trop.

On the Hill:
Monday: A.J. Burnett (8-7, 4.15) vs. Alex Cobb (2-0, 3.41)
Tuesday: Bartolo Colon (6-5, 3.47) vs. Jeremy Hellickson (8-7, 3.21)
Wednesday: Freddy Garcia (7-7, 3.43) vs. David Price (9-7, 3.73)
Thursday: CC Sabathia (14-4, 2.64) vs. James Shields (8-8, 2/60)

Rays-Yankees Series Preview: Finishing the 1st half

In the last series before the All-Star break, the Yankees face division foe Tampa Bay in a four-game series at Yankee Stadium.

The Rays are 5-5 in their last 10 and the Yankees are coming off their first series loss since the Red Sox swept them nearly a month ago.

On the Hill:
Thursday: Jeff Niemann (3-4, 5.05) vs. Bartolo Colon (6-3, 2.88)
Friday: Jeremy Hellickson (8-7, 3.21) vs. Freddy Garcia (7-6, 3.13)
Saturday: David Price (8-7, 3.56) vs. A.J. Burnett (8-7, 4.12)
Sunday: James Shields (8-6, 2.47) vs. CC Sabathia (12-4, 2.90)

Yankees end skid at 6, A-Rod homers twice

Alex Rodriguez connected for his seventh and eighth homers of the year, and Ivan Nova pitched the Yankees to a 6-2 victory, ending the team’s six-game losing streak.

Scoreboard Says: 
Yankees 6, Rays 2
Win: Ivan Nova
Loss: James Shields

A-Rod’s Knocks: 
A-Rod tied the game at 1 in the fourth with his seventh homer, and then broke that tie in the sixth for his second homer off Shields.

A.J. blows 4-run lead, Rays hold on for win

A.J. Burnett saw a four-run lead disappear in the sixth inning and the Rays bullpen nailed down the win with four spotless innings.

Scoreboard Says: 
Rays 6, Yankees 5
Win: David Price 
Loss: A.J. Burnett 
Save: Kyle Farnsworth 

Grandy Goes Yard: 
Curtis Granderson is still in the zone. With a three-run homer in the fifth, Granderson now has as many homers against lefties as he does against righties. That homer was also just the second homer Price has allowed to a lefty in his career and first since July 23, 2009.

Poll Results: Rays won’t contend in 2011

I guess losing an MVP-caliber player, a big bopper, a no-hitter throwing starter and four crucial components to the bullpen will leave fans with some doubt. That’s what happened with the Rays this offseason, and 75 percent of fans voted they were unlikely to contend in 2011.

The Rays have signed Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta for relief help, but that is all in terms of upgrading for 2011. However, some prospects, such as outfield prospect Desmond Jennings, are prepared to step into the big leagues.

Next poll: Who do you trust more to start?

It’s inevitable. Burnett will pitch in ALCS

Much to the chagrin of Yankees fans, myself included, A.J. Burnett will pitch Game 4 of the ALCS, Brian Cashman announced yesterday.

To clarify, Joe Girardi is still figuring out his team’s ALCS roster, but the Yankees will deploy a four-man rotation of CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes and now Burnett.

I am not happy about this decision, to say the least. My attitude is: it’s the postseason; don’t hold anyone back. Will Hughes’ right arm fall off if he starts Game 6 on three days rest? Possibly. But I’m willing to take that risk if my team is one win away from the World Series or handing it to Sabathia for Game 7.

Last year the schedule allowed the Yankees to use a three-man rotation without taxing their starters because of the extra off day. That extra day is gone this year and the Yankees are dealing with a different A.J. Burnett.

I also don’t like how the Yankees made this rotation announcement before the Rays-Rangers series wrapped up. Their decisive game is tonight. Game 1 of the ALCS is Friday. What’s the rush?

It doesn’t sound like the Yankees are going to change their rotation plans, so I’m just trying to get used to the idea of seeing Burnett in a meaningful situation again. Unless of course, there is a conveniently placed rainout and the Yankees opt to go right to Sabathia for Game 4.

For once, Mother Nature, I’m begging for rain!

2010 MLB Postseason Predictions

I was just looking at my preseason predictions, and, well, I’m not very proud. Of the eight playoff teams, I picked three correctly (Yankees, Phillies & Giants). I think I deserve a chance to start over now that the postseason is here. Here we go:

ALDS:
Rays beat Rangers in three games
Yankees beat Twins in three games

NLDS:
Reds beat Phillies in five games
Giants beat Braves in four games
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ALCS:
Yankees beat Rays in seven games

NLCS:
Giants beat Reds in six games
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World Series:
Yankees beat Giants in four games
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Hey, and I didn’t even change my World Series picks!

P.S.: I’ll be going over my preseason predictions in full once all the award winners are announced.

Rays have much easier remaining schedule than Yankees’

Yankees’ remaining opponents combined record: (735-633, .537)
Rays’ remaining opponents combined record: (609-911, .401)

It’s kind of absurd.

If you aren’t a numbers guy, the Yankees play the third and fourth placed teams in the best division in baseball and the Rays play two last placed teams and then the Kansas City Royals four times.

Yeah, it’s pretty absurd.

Now get ready to cringe. The Yankees have a half game lead over the Rays right now.

Chances the Yankees win the division? Vote here.

Embarrassing [Recap from last night]

The Yankees carried a 3-1 lead into the sixth inning in possibly the most important game of the year and wound up losing 10-3.

Embarrassing.

CC Sabathia picked the wrong night for his worst start of the season. After walking the Rays’ eighth and ninth hitters, Joba Chamberlain entered and allowed all three inherited runners to score plus one of his own.

Embarrassing.

Javier Vazquez hit three Rays in a row.

Embarrassing.

Oh, and Joe Girardi left him after that.

Embarrassing.

Girardi gave away last night’s game to Rays

I don’t know how you can deny it. After the rain came in the bottom of the third, A.J. Burnett’s start was over and Joe Girardi handed the rest of the game to three pitchers who haven’t seen action in more than a week and Chad Gaudin (5.25 ERA before the game). He gave away the game last night against the Yankees’ top competitor, the Rays.

Should Girardi have done that in order to keep his bullpen fresh for tonight and the rest of the week? Absolutely not.

No player will ever call it quits when they’re at the plate or on the mound. But when a manager brings in backups (meant for blowouts) in tight games, the players don’t have control.

Apparently David Robertson wasn’t available last night due to back spasms, and I’d count Joba Chamberlain out too because he pitched the night before.

OK, so Girardi did have a couple of excuses for bringing in his weaker pitchers in a huge game, but I still think he could have done a lot more to win.

What were Kerry Wood, Boone Logan and Mariano Rivera doing out in the bullpen? Gaudin had no business pitching in a one-run ballgame when three bullpen anchors were fresh and ready to go.

Shame on Girardi. Now let’s see if CC Sabathia can help me forget about this mess with a big, big start against David Price tonight.

Bombers beat Rays, extend lead in AL East

A five-run first inning fueled the Yankees 8-3 victory over the Rays tonight. The Yankees now lead the Rays by 2.5 games in the AL East and their magic number for a playoff berth is down to 3.

Best of All: Derek Jeter extended his hitting streak to 10 games with two hits tonight, but is still hitting just .265 on the year.

Phil Hughes turned in his first quality start since Aug. 19, earning his 17th win of the season.

Both Lance Berkman and Robinson Cano contributed two-run doubles.

Worst of All: Javier Vazquez allowed an inherited runner to score in the seventh and allowed three hits in one inning of work.

Mark Teixeira was the only Yankee starter without a hit, but he did score twice.

Coming Up: The Yankees have already assured themselves first place after their series with the Rays ends, but how many games they’re up by depends on Wednesday and Thursday.

Granderson helps Yankees sink Rays

Curtis Granderson launched two homers in an 8-6 victory over the Rays, including a three-run homer in the sixth to break a 4-4 tie.

Best of All: Wins against the Rays this time of year are huge. The Yankees expanded their lead to one-and-a-half games. 

Granderson has been one of the hottest Yankees in September. He now leads the team with six homers and 17 RBIs this month.

Ivan Nova nearly earned his first quality start, but was yanked before getting the last out of the sixth.

Worst of All: Mariano Rivera allowed at least one run in his second straight outing. September is already his worst month of the season in terms of earned runs allowed.

Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano combined to go for 0-for-13. Umm?

Coming Up: The Yankees have three more to play against the Rays. At least they’re at home.

Poll Results: Fans scared of Rays in playoffs

In my latest poll, fans voted they were most scared of facing the Rays in the playoffs. Neither the Twins nor the Rangers received many votes.

I sided with the fans this week. The Rays were the only team listed that has a deep starting rotation. It’s really hard to compete when you don’t have answers for David Price and Matt Garza.

If the season ended today, the Yankees would face the Rangers in the first round and have home field advantage until the World Series (if they get there). The Rays would face the Twins.

Just for kicks, I’m going to look into the National League for minute.

The Phillies, Braves, Reds and Giants would be in the postseason, but the Padres are fighting desperately for a spot.

My preseason World Series pick of Yankees vs. Giants is still intact, but I’m starting to think the Phillies are too good once again.

Next poll: Who deserves their award more?

Yanks to open at home for first time in ‘11

News broke last night that the Yankees will start next season at the new Yankee Stadium for the first time in its existence. They’ll face the Tigers March 31, and then finish the season at Tropicana Field to face the Rays.

The Yankees first series on the road, April 8-10, is at Fenway Park.

Their schedule at the end of the year popped out me the most. Their last eight games are against Tampa Bay (5) and the Red Sox (3).

Still, it’s not quite as harsh as the September and October the Yankees are trying to survive through this season.

Verducci: MLB should have two wild cards in each league

Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci just posted a convincing argument for adding another wild card to each league, creating a “Wild Card Elimination Game” in which the loser goes home and the winner advances to the Division Series to play the team with the best record.

I like the idea. A lot.

One of the points he made that I strongly agree with was the Yankees and Rays aren’t in any real race right now, but they could be. Sure, one team will get to play the wild card, but both teams can choose to rest their players with the comfort of knowing they’ll play a five-game series.

Add another wild card spot in each league and the Yankees and Rays will fight hard to win the AL East and avoid a one-game, sudden death playoff.

Verducci said he already had run the idea by MLB Commissioner Bud Selig. His response:

“I don't like the season coming down to one game,” he said. “You play 162 games and it all rides on one game. I'm not sure that's fair.”

That’s the only counterpoint I can think of, and I don’t think it’s very strong. As Verducci mentions, baseball has lacked tight playoff races, win-or-go-home games and good TV ratings down the stretch.

One-game playoffs are more exciting than five- or seven-game playoff series are. I’m not advocating all playoff series should be one game, but a couple extra guaranteed March Madness-style games each year would add a lot of excitement.

What do you think? Is Verducci on to something? Or is there too much at stake for one game in a 162-game season?

Yankees playoff roster projection

I really hate counting out the Red Sox as early as I am, but I took the hint from their series loss to the Rays this past weekend. The Yankees and Rays remain tied with the best record in baseball and are heavy favorites to make the playoffs, so it’s time to start thinking about what their playoff rosters are going to look like.

Since I’m a Yankees blogger, I’m want to show you what I have in mind for them. By all means, make your case for players I reject. But please hear my cases for the fringe guys first!

The No-Doubters
Hitters (12)
Jorge Posada
Francisco Cervelli
Mark Teixeira
Lance Berkman
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Brett Gardner
Curtis Granderson
Nick Swisher
Marcus Thames
Austin Kearns

Pitchers (8)
CC Sabathia
Andy Pettitte
Phil Hughes
Mariano Rivera
Joba Chamberlain
David Robertson
Boone Logan
Kerry Wood

I think it’s safe to say the Yankees will carry 14 hitters and 11 pitchers, so that leaves spots for two more hitters and three pitchers. Here we go:

The Fringe Guys
Ramiro Pena — I’ll take him over Eduardo Nunez as my backup infielder. Pena has far more major-league experience than Nunez and is better defensively at more positions. I think it’s a no-brainer right now, but this could change in September.

Greg Golson — This might come as a shock to you. He has five at-bats with the Yankees this year and I have him on their playoff roster. I think the Yankees would benefit more from a speedster off the bench than a third catcher because I see Marcus Thames and Lance Berkman sharing DH duties when Francisco Cervelli catches.

A.J. Burnett — I think he’ll make the roster, but I’m not sure if he’ll be in the rotation. Another poor start or two and I think Joe Girardi will kick him out to the bullpen (where I happen to think he could be great). He’s really the biggest question mark on the whole staff.

Javier Vazquez — Like Burnett, I don’t know whether he’ll be a starter or reliever, but I think he’ll make the roster. If he’s in the rotation, that means he’s back to mid-season form. If he’s still in the pen, then maybe Girardi doesn’t want to mess with what’s working. We’ll see. Ivan Nova is the guy I’m rejecting here.

Damaso Marte — Oh how much a big game in the World Series can mean for a player. Such is the case for Marte. There hasn’t been a lot of good news about his rehab, but if he can make a few appearances in late September I think that’s more than enough evidence for Girardi to choose him. Plus, Girardi loves left-handed relievers. Who doesn’t?

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There you have it. I’ll post an updated version when late September rolls around, but until then you can feast on this. And if you’re really hungry, take a look at another perspective from a fellow Yankees blogger.

Twitter: Red Sox claiming Damon to keep him away from Yankees, Rays

The Red Sox claimed Johnny Damon off waivers, but it’s up to Damon if he’ll make a return to Boston because of his no-trade clause. He has until 1:30 p.m. Wednesday to decide.

Red Sox blogger Chuck H. of Two Cents From Beantown wondered the same thing I wondered.

I'm not really clear what the Red Sox are hoping to achieve with this claim of Damon. I am confused. This team did ZERO at the trade deadline to improve this ball club, yet now they want to bring Johnny Jesus back into the fold to help them with the nearly impossible task of making the playoffs at this stage of the game?

Doesn't add up.

Couldn’t agree with Chuck more. The Red Sox are not COMPLETELY out of the playoff run yet; 5.5 games isn’t absurd when you consider how many times they face the Rays and Yankees down the stretch.

So why ‘d they do it?

A lot of people on Twitter added input to this discussion. The quick vote was 7-2 in favor of the Red Sox claiming Damon to prevent the Rays and Yankees from getting him, but take a look at what they had to say.

One tweet I’d like to discuss for a second is the one from truegrich. Would Damon hurt the Yankees if they acquired him?

I don’t think so. With Lance Berkman on the DL and Brett Gardner struggling, Damon would add a nice spark to the offense. And everyone knows he adds nothing but good to a clubhouse.

That being said, I’d rather have Manny Ramirez than Damon. But he’s not available, and likely wouldn’t be to the Yankees.